Scary? Facts about the Debt

Saying these are facts about the debt is one thing, but to call them 'scary' is to put needless fear into Americans. My comments are in red.

As President Obama unveiled the 2013 fiscal year budget, the nation's financial situation came back into sharp focus. Experts say partisan gridlock in Washington means the budget will probably go nowhere.

Considering this is an election year, however, expect politicians to harp on facts, figures and terms that most Americans weren't taught in high school. To help out, it's time to dredge up lots of scary facts to make you pay attention.

Before we get going, a quick primer on the number TRILLION:

$1 trillion = $1,000 billion or $1,000,000,000,000 (that's 12 zeros) very true

How hard is it to spend a trillion dollars? If you spent one dollar every second, you would have spent a million dollars in 12 days. At that same rate, it would take you 32 years to spend a billion dollars. But it would take you more than 31,000 years to spend a trillion dollars.

And now, some scary (She still hasn't said why it is scary) facts about the debt and the deficit -- some basics:

Deficit = money government takes in -- money government spends very true

2012 US deficit = $1.33 trillion still see no problem here, it is not causing inflation and our economy is still not doing that well

2013 Proposed budget deficit = $901 billion this may actually not be enough to grow our economy, still too far away to tell for sure

National debt = Total amount borrowed over time to fund the annual deficit sort of true, the debt is meant to 'fund' the deficit, but isn't necessary to do so. Issuing debt is a way for the Fed to maintain interest rate targets, not a necessary means for raising funds. The government can spend without taxes or issuing debt.

Current national debt = $15.3 trillion (or $49,030 per every man, woman and child in the US or $135,773 per taxpayer) True, but thinking of it this way is misleading. We will never have to fork over $49,000 to pay it off. Most of it isn't due for years to come and doesn't ever have to paid off at anyone one moment. Plus, the national debt=national savings. That means there is $15.3 trillion dollars of US bonds in the hands of the private sector, of which they are earning interest on.


OK, let's get started! Here is her official list of "scary" facts

Double-Dip Optimism?

Not sure why.

From Yahoo! News about Wall Street Journal Poll:

Economists are getting increasingly optimistic about our chances of avoiding a double-dip recession.

A Wall Street Journal survey of 52 economists put the chances of falling back into a recession in the next year at one in four. That's down from a one in three chance, when the Journal put the question to the same group in September.

The Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, but since then growth has been frustratingly slow. Over the summer, anemic job growth, Europe's debt crisis and the wrangling in Washington over raising the U.S. debt ceiling sparked new fears that the economy could begin contracting again. But since then, signs have pointed to steady, though still far from strong, growth. On Thursday, the Labor Department said the number of people filing first-time claims for jobless benefits dropped to 390,000--the lowest level in seven months.

Still, economists in the survey said they expected the jobless rate to stay above 7 percent by 2014.

They also said there's a two in three chance that the Eurozone will fall into a recession, dragged down by possible Greek or Italian defaults. If that happens, the U.S. economy would likely also be affected.

I am not so optimistic. An imminent EU collapse would have widespread ramifications for the U.S. and the world as a whole. Deficit cutting will also lower aggregate effective demand and therefore growth. Private spending is unlikely to make up the difference because of the large amounts of debt still on their balance sheets.

This could be avoided if the EU creates a fiscal institution to carry out the spending necessary to prevent a collapse in demand and if the U.S. increases deficit spending and writes down large amounts of private debt, but all of these remedies seem extremely unlikely. Thus, I am rather pessimistic that we will avoid a double-dip recession.